1. Method Name

The Delphi Method

2. Alternative Names

The Delphic Oracle

3. Brief Description

The Delphi method is a structured communication process used to reach a consensus or make a forecast within a group of experts. The process involves several rounds of anonymous questionnaires, between which the facilitator summarizes and shares the responses from the previous round.

4. Purpose / When to Use

It is used to predict future trends, to evaluate complex political or technological issues, or in situations where it is necessary to reach a consensus among experts who are unable or unwilling to meet in person. It is ideal if you want to eliminate the influence of authority figures and group pressure.

5. Procedure / How to Apply It

1. Selection of Experts and a Facilitator: Select a group of experts on the given topic and one neutral facilitator.
2. Round 1 (Open-Ended Questions): The facilitator sends the experts the first questionnaire with open-ended questions on the given topic (e.g., “What will be the greatest threats to cybersecurity in the next 5 years?”).
3. Analysis and Round 2: The facilitator anonymously summarizes and categorizes the responses from the first round. They create a second questionnaire in which they ask the experts to rate or prioritize the collected opinions (e.g., on a scale of 1–5).
4. Analysis and subsequent rounds: The facilitator summarizes the results again, calculates the means and standard deviation, and shows the experts how their opinion differs from the group average. The facilitator asks them to either adjust their opinion or provide a written justification for why they stand by their differing view.
5. Repetition: The steps are repeated (usually 2–4 rounds) until a sufficient level of consensus or stability in the responses is achieved.

6. A Real-World Example

The government wants to estimate when fusion energy will be commercially available. It will assemble a panel of 20 physicists and engineers. In the first round, they will estimate a year. In the second round, they will examine the average and the range of responses and will have the opportunity to adjust their estimates. This process will gradually eliminate extremely optimistic and pessimistic estimates, bringing the group closer to a consensus, more robust estimate.

7. Benefits

- Anonymity: Eliminates the influence of dominant personalities, authority figures, and peer pressure
.- Enables the participation of geographically dispersed experts
.- A structured and guided discussion that leads to consensus
.- Generates well-reasoned opinions.

8. Risks / Limits

- Extremely time-consuming: The entire process can take weeks or even months
.- High “dropout” rate: Experts may lose interest and stop responding in subsequent rounds
.- Success depends on the quality of the experts and the facilitator.
- Risk of manipulation: The facilitator may (even unintentionally) influence the results by the way they summarize the responses.

9. Practical Tips

- Clearly define what "consensus" means before the process begins
.- Keep experts engaged: Keep them regularly informed about the progress of the process and the importance of their contributions
.- Consider using online tools that can speed up and simplify the process.